Does the China factor matter? The effects of mainland China-related impressions and experiences on independence–unification views in Taiwan

External factors have not received the scholarly attention they deserve in previous research on the independence–unification (IU) issue in Taiwan. This paper seeks to enhance our understanding of IU views in Taiwan by examining how the China factor affects Taiwanese individuals’ IU stances. The ‘China factor’ here is defined as Taiwanese people’s mainland China-related impressions and experiences. It is categorised into two types, corresponding to the affective and behavioural dimensions, respectively. Taking advantage of new panel data (i.e., TIGCR-PPS 2018–2022) and advanced statistical techniques (i.e., within-between random effects modelling), this study finds that two dimensions of the China factor exhibit strong explanatory power for IU views, even after controlling for the determinants emphasised in existing studies. Taiwanese people’s impressions of mainland China exert both short- and long-term effects on their IU views, whereas visits to mainland China have a long-term effect. Specifically, more favourable impressions of mainland China and prior travel experiences there are associated with a lower likelihood of supporting Taiwan independence. These findings build on existing research and suggest several avenues for future research.