What question did this study set out to answer?

To examine how energy price shocks, central bank monetary policy, and geopolitical events influence inflation across selected European economies across different time horizons.

January 29, 2025HeliyonOpen Access

Geopolitical turmoil and energy dynamics: Analyzing the impact on inflation in selected European economies

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Authors

CMCumali MarangozAğrı İbrahim Çeçen University

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Implication

Econometric modeling reveals energy shocks and geopolitical risks amplify inflation across European economies, highlighting key macroeconomic drivers of price instability.

Key Points

To examine how energy price shocks, central bank monetary policy, and geopolitical events influence inflation across selected European economies across different time horizons.
Applied a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility.
Evaluated dynamic relationships among gas prices, oil prices, European Central Bank monetary interventions, geopolitical conflict, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Gas price shocks demonstrated distinct, time-varying impacts on the Consumer Price Index across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons.
Deflationary oil price trends observed during the COVID-19 pandemic generated subsequent inflationary effects, shaped further by European Central Bank monetary responses.
Geopolitical risks associated with the Russia-Ukraine war significantly accelerated and amplified inflationary trends across the examined economies.

Cite This Study

Cumali Marangoz (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a17e3754f2b3115b01323fa https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2025.e42302

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Implication

Econometric modeling reveals energy shocks and geopolitical risks amplify inflation across European economies, highlighting key macroeconomic drivers of price instability.

Geopolitical turmoil and energy dynamics: Analyzing the impact on inflation in selected European economies

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Geopolitical turmoil and energy dynamics: Analyzing the impact on inflation in selected European economies

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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