Children's Understanding of Probability Concepts

HOEMANN, HARRY W., and Ross, BRUCE M. Children's Understanding of Probability Concepts. CHILD DEVELOPMENT, 1971, 42, 221-236. 4 experiments administering probability judgment tasks are reported using child Ss ranging in age from preschool to early adolescence. Experiment 1 showed equivalent results with probability and proportionality instructions when judgments were performed between 2 circles with different black and white proportions. Experiment 2 showed that fewer correct probability than proportionality judgments occurred when Ss judged a single circle. It was concluded that the 2-circle task does not require probability concepts, since Ss need not construct probability ratios to succeed. These results confirm those of Piaget and Inhelder. Experiments 3 and 4 modified the 2-circle task to require use of probability concepts and administered a probability task with double arrays of discrete objects. Results were comparable to those found for the single-circle task. Researchers who have claimed that preschool children use probability concepts are criticized since their experimental tasks have been similar to the unmodified 2-circle task of Experiment 1.