Warming and Aridification Amplify Extreme Fire Weather Elevating Population Exposure in China

ABSTRACT Escalating extreme fire weather across China threatens global carbon cycling and ecological security, yet a comprehensive assessment of its climatic drivers and future population exposure risk is still lacking. Using ERA5 reanalysis (1981–2020), CMIP6 multi‐model outputs (2021–2100) and gridded population data, we conducted spatiotemporal analysis, climatic attribution and exposure assessment to address this gap. Results show that extreme FWI intensity (FWI extᵢnt) and extreme FWI consecutive days (FWI extconday) increased by 18 units per decade and 13 days per decade in China during 1981–2020, with the strongest trends in the Greater Khingan Mountains and Southeast China. Maximum temperature (T max) dominated FWI extᵢnt intensification trends, while vapour pressure deficit (VPD) governed prolongation of FWI extconday, both linked to warming and aridification. Under high‐emission scenario (SSP585), FWI extᵢnt and FWI extconday rise by ~15 units per decade and 30 days per decade, 2. 5–6 times greater than that of medium‐emission scenario (SSP245). Population exposure in the mid‐21st century increased predominantly due to climate change, exhibiting a ‘southern high‐northern low’ pattern. By the late century, northern China shows negative exposure mainly due to population decline and migration, while southern positive exposure is still contributed by climate change. Our findings clarify extreme fire weather drivers, future danger and exposure dynamics in China, providing targeted insights for fire mitigation and aligning with national carbon neutrality goals and global sustainable development.