The Economics of Crime Deterrence: A Survey of Theory and Evidence

Economists have generally supposed that certainty and severity of punishment deter crime and have been surprised whenever this is not confirmed by empirical word. This paper gives a number of explanations, consistent with economic theory, as to why there need not be a contradiction here. The empirical work is reviewed with the conclusion that economists have yet to convincingly demonstrate the case for deterrence. In conclusion, a number of potentially fruitful areas for future research within the deterrence paradigm are suggested.