Randomized trial finds door-to-door drives increase voter registration and turnout across urban streets, suggesting registration burdens exist without shifting overall electorate composition.
Most people interested in participating in the electoral process are registered to vote. This self-selection process creates two empirical puzzles. First, it is unclear whether voter registration drives introduce new voters into the electorate or simply facilitate a bureaucratic transaction that people registering would accomplish via other means in the absence of the drive. Second, estimating the causal effect of registration on turnout is difficult because the act of selection signals political interest and engagement that is correlated with turnout. This article utilizes field experiments to answer these two questions and the second question of the type of person mobilized by registration drives.1 Across six cities, 620 streets were randomly assigned to receive face-to-face visits encouraging voter registration or a control group that received no attention from the campaign. On average, 10 more newly registered people appeared on treatment streets than control streets—an increase of 4.4%. This suggests that registration is a burden for a portion of the eligible population. Comparing the number of ballots cast by newly registered voters, treatment streets averaged two more votes than control streets. That is, 24% of the people registered as a direct result of the experiment voted. Disaggregating the results by socioeconomic status, the increase in registration is largest on relatively poor streets, but this difference is counterbalanced by higher turnout among new registrants on relatively affluent streets. Thus, the results of these six experiments suggest that electoral reforms reducing the costs associated with voter registration will assist a nontrivial portion of the electorate but not alter the overall composition of the electorate.
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David W. Nickerson (2014) studied this question.
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