The unbearable lightness of buying

Although marketers are increasingly asked to manage brands for the long term, it is difficult to do so when no clear picture exists of long-term brand buying. This study reports cumulative behavioural loyalty outcomes for 200 UK consumer-goods brands when observed in a five-year household panel of continuous reporters. We examine these brands in intervals from one to five years against NBD (Negative Binomial Distribution) model projections. Stationary brands attract over twice as many buyers in five years as they do in one. Of these buyers, 80% purchase the brand at a rate of once a year or less, yet contribute 40% to total sales, a Pareto ratio of just 60:20. For managers, this light buying is broadly predictable from NBD fittings to annual data, and implies a renewed emphasis on nudging the brand buying propensities of the whole market.