Spatiotemporal dynamics of livestock losses due to snow disasters and the role of hypoxic environment across the Qinghai Plateau

Livestock snow disasters occur when heavy snow covers grasslands, preventing livestock from accessing forage and exposing them to extreme cold and starvation. Reducing the risk of such disasters requires understanding their mechanisms and accurately assessing losses. However, the role of hypoxic environments in exacerbating livestock losses during snow disasters in the Qinghai Plateau (QP) remains poorly understood, hindering accurate loss and risk assessment. This study addressed this gap by developing a vulnerability model to predict livestock mortality rates under hypoxic environments. We systematically evaluated livestock losses caused by snow disasters across the QP over 1983‒2020 by incorporating snow hazard data along with natural environmental and socio-economic variables under a fixed oxygen environment assumption. Furthermore, we quantified the amplified effect of hypoxic environments on livestock snow disasters by applying a control variable approach. The results indicated that the annual mean livestock mortality rate caused by snow disasters across the QP during 1983‒2020 was 2.00%, with 39.50% of these losses attributed to hypoxic environments. Large livestock losses were primarily concentrated in the southern and south-eastern QP, whereas sheep losses were more severe across the central, southern, south-eastern, and north-eastern regions. Significant decreasing trends ( p < 0.05) were observed in large livestock losses (−9.74 × 10 4 standard large livestock units per decade) and sheep losses (−1.75 × 10 5 standard sheep units per decade) across the QP. These declines were driven by the warming climate, improved vegetation conditions and enhanced prevention capacity, which collectively reduced livestock vulnerability. The results provide critical insights for decision-making aimed at mitigating livestock snow disasters and promoting sustainable pastoral development in the QP under climate change.