Dynamic Analysis of Research Efficiency: A Comparative Study of Elite Universities Across Four National Higher Education Systems

Elite universities are central to national knowledge and innovation systems, yet cross‐national differences in the evolution of their research efficiency remain underexplored. This study conducts a dynamic analysis of research efficiency among leading universities in China, the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. Using panel data from 160 elite universities, this study applies an integrated analytical framework combining DEA‐SBM, kernel density estimation and Markov‐chain mobility modelling. The framework is used to evaluate the dynamic evolution, distributional structure and transition pathways across institutional contexts. Distinct national patterns emerge. China follows a high‐growth, high‐mobility catch‐up trajectory, with rising pure technical efficiency but declining scale efficiency. The United States shows a high‐investment, low‐mobility equilibrium marked by hierarchical persistence and limited upward movement. The United Kingdom displays a fluctuation‐adjustment pattern, with efficiency sensitive to external shocks but capable of recovery through institutional adaptation. Australia exhibits steady improvement driven mainly by intensification rather than expansion. Mobility analysis indicates greater fluidity in China and Australia, while the United States exhibits the greatest rigidity. Scale‐efficiency mapping further reveals heterogeneous development paths across countries. The evolution of research efficiency in elite universities is shaped by national governance arrangements and resource‐allocation logics. The findings highlight the importance of differentiated governance, better‐aligned resource allocation and mechanisms that enhance mobility and long‐term innovation capacity.