4540 Background: Estimating risk of renal cell cancer (RCC) relapse based only on pre-surgical data is key to future neoadjuvant trial design. The EA PROSPER phase 3 study accrued pts with clinical stage ≥T2 or T any N+ RCC of any histology for nephrectomy. Pts were randomized to presurgical nivolumab (nivo) followed by primary tumor resection and 9 cycles of adjuvant nivo, or surgery alone followed by observation. We used PROSPER data to assess how baseline data informs risk. We reviewed cT to pT stage transitions, associated cT stages with outcome, and asked if size in addition to cT stage increases predictive accuracy. Methods: Pts with clear cell (cc) RCC were included. cT to pT concordance was assessed by TNM 8 th edition. DFS analysis (time from surgery to recurrence, second primary, or any cause death) was performed; pts with no event were censored at date of last assessment. DFS analysis compared cT groups (cT1/cT2 vs cT3/cT4) in the overall eligible study population and within each study arm. A subset DFS analysis by tumor size among cT2a (> 7-8cm vs >8-10cm) and cT3a ( 8cm) was explored. Cox proportional hazards models were used, and log-rank test was reported to represent global p-value of each model. Wald test p-value was reported for individual group comparison (in assessing more than two groups). Two-sided p-values are reported, all p-values were considered significant at 0.05. Results: Of 819 pts randomized, 732 ccRCC pts (382 surgery only, 350 nivo + surgery) had data available. DFS was significantly different between cT1/cT2 vs. cT3/cT4 group, favoring cT1/cT2 among all pts (HR cT1/cT2 as reference=1.56, two-sided log-rank p 8cm groups when compared to 8cm vs 8cm. Conclusions: In ccRCC pts, baseline cT assessment is associated with DFS outcome. High grade cT1/2 pts risk pathological upstaging to pT3. cT3+ identifies high risk pts, with 8cm have a worse prognosis than patients with < 7cm tumors. These findings should be accounted for in eligibility criteria and risk assessment models for neoadjuvant trials, and explored in other international datasets.
Jones et al. (Wed,) studied this question.