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May 29, 2026Journal of Engineering0 citationsOpen Access

Data‐Driven Prediction of Photovoltaic Inverter Temperature Using Operational Dashboard Data: A Comparative Machine Learning Study

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TNTue Duy NguyenVan Lang UniversityHBHien Van BuiVietnam Academy of Social SciencesTTTrieu Ngoc TonTon Duc Thang University

Key Points

  • The aim is to develop a data-driven method for predicting photovoltaic inverter temperature using online monitoring data.
  • Evaluated five machine-learning models: decision tree, random forest, gradient boosting, histogram-based gradient boosting, XGBoost.
  • Used standard operational data from monitoring dashboards to predict inverter temperature.
  • Focused on interpretability through SHAP analysis.
  • Random forest model achieved R2 of 0.9947, RMSE of 0.601°C, and MAE of 0.471°C on an independent test set.
  • Subdegree accuracy (< 1°C) achieved with seven input features.
  • Identified inverse relationship between reactive power and inverter temperature using SHAP analysis.

Abstract

Effective thermal management is crucial to PV inverter reliability and lifetime, as power electronic components are highly sensitive to thermal stress. However, many existing monitoring methods rely on complex simulations or costly experiments. This study proposes a data‐driven approach to predict inverter temperature using standard variables from online monitoring dashboards. Five machine‐learning models, such as decision tree, random forest, gradient boosting, histogram‐based gradient boosting, and XGBoost, were evaluated; random forest performed best on an independent test set (R 2 = 0.9947, RMSE = 0.601°C, MAE = 0.471°C). SHAP analysis further provided interpretability and revealed a clear inverse relationship between reactive power and inverter temperature, alongside the effects of the daily cycle and power output. Overall, subdegree (< 1°C) accuracy was achieved with only seven input features, enabling a practical, cost‐effective solution for predictive maintenance and real‐time monitoring.

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Cite This Study

Nguyen et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a192e4efab5b468c4417681https://doi.org/10.1155/je/7443278
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