Eco-Socioeconomic Coordination and Driving Mechanisms in an Inland River Basin Under a Major Water Transfer Project: A Case Study of the Shiyang River Basin

Arid inland river basins are constrained by severe water scarcity and fragile ecosystems. Although large-scale water transfer projects are critical interventions, studies of their comprehensive impacts on eco-socioeconomic systems remain limited. To address this gap, this study proposes an integrated assessment framework. A global Remote Sensing Ecological Index (gRSEI) was developed by incorporating a salinity indicator, employing optimal indicator selection, and utilizing a full-period global normalization strategy. A Gridded Socioeconomic Index (GSEI) was constructed by integrating nighttime light (NTL), population (POP), and gross domestic product (GDP) data. The coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and the optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD) were applied to analyze spatial patterns across subregions. Focusing on the Shiyang River Basin (SYRB), this study analyzed the spatiotemporal responses and coupling coordination of the eco-socioeconomic system to the 2001 Jingdian Phase II Water Transfer Project. Results indicate that ecological quality improved significantly after the water transfer, with gRSEI increasing from 0.225 to 0.334. Socioeconomic development also improved overall. The eco-socioeconomic system exhibited high coupling but moderate coordination. The coupling degree (C) and coordination degree (D) increased from 0.824 and 0.370 to 0.852 and 0.442, respectively, with clear regional heterogeneity. The water transfer project shifted the dominant driver of coordinated development from water-related factors to land cover. This study provides a practical framework for assessing ecological and socioeconomic dynamics and their interactions in arid basins under major water transfer project interventions.