Coupling Coordination and Its Driving Mechanisms Between Ecological Carrying Capacity and High-Quality Development in the Yellow River Basin

Understanding the interaction between ecological carrying capacity and high-quality development is essential for reconciling ecological protection with socioeconomic development in the Yellow River Basin. This study, spanning the period from 2000 to 2023, constructed an ecological carrying capacity index across four dimensions, including water resources, energy, food, and ecological regulation and carbon source-sink balance, and a high-quality development index across five dimensions, including ecology, water resources, economy, culture, and livelihood. TOPSIS, the coupling coordination degree model, exploratory spatial data analysis, the standard deviational ellipse, and multiscale geographically weighted regression were used to characterize spatiotemporal patterns and spatially varying associations. The results showed that: (1) Ecological carrying capacity declined slightly from 0.297 in 2000 to 0.292 in 2005 and then rose to 0.307 in 2023, whereas high-quality development increased from 0.199 in 2000 to 0.267 in 2015 and subsequently stabilized. (2) The coupling coordination degree increased from 0.476 in 2000 to 0.516 in 2023 and exhibited significant positive spatial autocorrelation (global Moran’s I = 0.327–0.440, p < 0.01). (3) MGWR outperformed GWR (R2 = 0.641–0.785 vs. 0.482–0.624), indicating spatial nonstationarity. The ecosystem quality index showed the most stable positive association with coupling coordination degree, the association with patent grants strengthened markedly by 2023, the positive association with GDP per capita diminished, and population density remained negatively associated. This study proposes targeted, zone-specific regulatory recommendations, providing a decision-making basis for scientifically differentiated regulation in the Yellow River Basin.