Contextualizing change in Turkish foreign policy: the promise of the ‘two-good’ theory

The last decade has witnessed Turkish foreign policy transform from a status-quo oriented stance to one that aggressively asserts Turkey’s preferences aboard. This structural break in Turkish foreign policy coincided with two significant domestic developments. First, Turkish economy has experienced a sustained period of growth during the first decade of the new millennium. Concomitant with Turkey's economic growth, the country also took substantial steps towards democratization, an important consequence of which has been the popularization of foreign policy. Turkey has become an important aid donor in Africa, stepped up its ambassadorial presence across the globe, and had a successful bid for a seat in the UN Security Council. Motivated by the inadequacy exhibited by conventional theories of international relations in explaining the multifaceted change in Turkish foreign policy, this paper highlights the strengths of the Two-Good Theory of foreign policy to explain Turkey’s increasing involvement in world affairs during the last decade. In doing so, it extends Palmer & Morgan’s formal model of foreign policy production to explain how the two aforementioned developments resulted in a multifaceted Turkish foreign policy that (a) puts less emphasis on the use of militarized force, and instead (b) employs a larger portfolio of foreign policy tools. Insights from this analysis can also help scholars to explain the peaceful rise of regional leaders elsewhere around the globe, such as China and Brazil.