How the West was Won: Regional Politics and Prophetic Promises in the 2007 Kenya Elections

Abstract In the 2007 Kenya elections, the violent clashes and allegations of electoral fraud that engulfed the country served to overshadow, and thus mask, the underlying causes of the opposition and disillusionment that had produced such a closely contested presidential election. The success of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in challenging the incumbent government, despite the outcome, rested in its ability to mobilise support across regional and ethnic lines throughout the country. This paper demonstrates how ODM mobilised coalition strategies, regional arguments and historical justifications to court a particular regional vote, the Luyia of the Western Province. As the second largest ethnic group in Kenya, the Luyia have, in every election since independence, represented a crucial battleground in the hunt for votes, as a large yet unwieldy and unpredictable voting bloc. However, the opposition's strength, and indeed the post-election chaos, cannot be explained simply by reference to political tribalism or inter-ethnic conflict alone. Rather, this case study reveals the ways in which ODM used promises of succession, power-sharing and regional devolution of authority and resources to create a broad-based, multi-ethnic coalition.