Reforms, the Weather, and Productivity Growth in China's Grain Sector

We use disaggregate county‐level production data to study the effects of economic reform on China's grain production between 1980 and 1990. China's grain production area is divided into five regions based on geographic, agronomic, and meteorological criteria. Regional grain production functions are estimated, and weather is explicitly modeled. The institutional impact of economic reform was found to explain about 38% of the production growth from 1980 to 1985. This is lower than the estimates reported in many previous studies. Regional differences in efficiency gains from economic reform and in the effects of weather on grain production are found to be significant.