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The article analyzes the prospects for the evolution of the odious terrorist group of modern times, «al-Qaeda». This topic is relevant, since the ongoing conflicts in the middle East, Africa and Asia continue to serve as an «ideal» environment for the development of radical groups and ideologies. Based on a detailed study of the history of the formation of this organization, its ideology, goals, objectives and strategy, the authors consider the possibility of «al-Qaeda» becoming the dominant force in the global extremist movement in the coming years. The article examines the main stages of activity of this group, presents the results of a comparative analysis of the tactics of «al-Qaeda» and its main competitor «ISIS». It is concluded that the strategic goal of «al-Qaeda» is to strengthen unity among foreign fighters of the global extremist movement. By engaging in some conflicts that are both fundamental and highly symbolic, «al-Qaeda» can further strengthen its image as the «true» vanguard of Islamist insurgents. The article focuses on the relationship between «al-Qaeda» and its affiliates in Iraq, Algeria, Yemen, and South Asia. The authors conclusions are based on the analysis of publications and speeches in the media space of the radical leader, A. al-Zawahiri. The authors conclude that modern «al-Qaeda» is a decentralized, networked transnational terrorist organization. The conclusion is made about the possibility of «al-Qaeda» entering a new phase of activity, which will include strengthening territorial control, expanding recruitment and high-profile terrorist attacks around the world.
Alexey M. Vasiliev (Sat,) studied this question.