Risks of PIT evasion in the framework of the 2025 tax reform

2025 tax reform increases the risks of PIT evasion due to the increased tax burden due to the introduction of a five-step progression. The possibilities of assessing the extent of PIT evasion are provided by a comparative analysis of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and PIT receipts to the budget, as well as an analysis of the results of sociological research. In Russia, up to 40 % of taxable income may be at risk of PIT evasion. The conducted research indicates that the introduction of a five-step progression in itself will not have a significant impact on budget tax revenues due to the high share of employment of Russians in the public sector, as well as in large and large businesses, which are not characterized by shadow taxation; the continued soft progression of PIT on non-labor passive income, financial transactions; the complication of capital withdrawal from Russia in the context of sanctions restrictions; development of tax administration. Compared with the transition to progression, the increased tax burden on small and medium-sized businesses, which are more prone to using shadow schemes, carries more significant risks of PIT evasion.