The Demise of Ares: The End of War as We Know It?

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. John J. Mearsheimer, "Why We Will Soon Miss the Cold War," The Atlantic Monthly 266, no. 2 (August 1990), http://mearsheimer.uchicago.edu/pdfs/A0014.pdf. 2. Robert D. Kaplan, Balkan Ghosts: A Journey Through History (New York: Vintage Books, 1993); Ibid., The Ends of the Earth (New York: Random House, 1996); and Benjamin Barber, Jihad vs McWorld: How the Planet Is Both Falling Apart and Coming Together and What This Means for Democracy (New York: Times Books, 1995). 3. James Dale Davidson and William Rees-Mogg, The Great Reckoning: How The World Will Change in the Depression of the 1990s (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1991). 4. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Pandemonium: Ethnicity in International Politics (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993). 5. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) yearbooks 1990 to 2011, http://www.sipri.org/yearbook. 6. Center for Systemic Peace, "Global Conflict Trends," http://www.systemicpeace.org/conflict.htm. 7. Human Security Report Project, Human Security Report 2005: War and Peace in the 21st Century, http://www.hsrgroup.org/human-security-reports/2005/overview.aspx. 8. J. Joseph Hewitt et al., Peace and Conflict 2008 (CIDCM, University of Maryland, 2008). 9. SIPRI Yearbook 2011. 10. First Russian-Turkish War (1828–1829), War of Crimea (1853–1856), Austro-Prussian War (1856), French-Prussian War (1870–1871), and the Second Russian-Turkish War (1877–1878). 11. Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined (New York: Penguin Group, 2011), pp. 250–252. 12. Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined (New York: Penguin Group, 2011), pp. 224-227. 13. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and David Lalman, War and Reason: Domestic and International Imperatives (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1992). 14. See Geoffrey Blainey, The Causes of War (New York: Free Press, 1988) for the 9, 2, and 2 calculation; see Jack S. Levy, War in the Modern Great Power System 1495–1975 (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1983) for the 11, 6, and 3 calculation. 15. Lawrence H. Keeley, War Before Civilization: The Myth of the Peaceful Savage (New York: Oxford University Press, 1996). 16. Peter Brecke, "Long-Term Patterns of Violent Conflict in Different Regions of the World," paper presented at the Uppsala Conflict Data Conference, Uppsala, Sweden, June 8–9, 2001. 17. Kalevi J. Holsti, "The decline of interstate war: pondering systemic explanations," in The Waning of Major War: Theories and Debates, ed. Raimo Väyrinen (Routledge: Abingdon, 2006), p. 136. 18. Pinker, p. 230. 19. Pinker, p. 195. 20. Malcolm Potts and Thomas Hayden, Sex and War: How Biology Explains Warfare and Terrorism and Offers a Path to a Safer World (Dallas: BenBella, 2008), p. 172; and Keeley, p. 196. 21. Human Security Report Project, Human Security Report 2009/2010: The Causes of Peace and the Shrinking Costs of War, http://www.hsrgroup.org/human-security-reports/20092010/overview.aspx. 22. Adam Roberts, "Lives and Statistics: Are 90% of War Victims Civilians?" Survival 52, no. 3 (June–July 2010). 23. Human Security Report 2005. 24. John Lewis Gaddis, The Long Peace (New York: Oxford University Press, 1990). 25. Robert Rauchhaus, "Evaluating the Nuclear Peace Hypothesis: A Quantitative Approach," Journal of Conflict Resolution 53, no. 2 (April 2009). 26. Virginia Page Fortna, Does Peacekeeping Work? Shaping Belligerents' Choices After Civil War (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2008). 27. Pinker, pp. 543–545. 28. John Mueller, "War Has Almost Ceased to Exist: An Assessment," Political Science Quarterly 124, no. 2 (Summer 2009): p. 307, http://polisci.osu.edu/faculty/jmueller/THISPSQ.pdf. 29. Richard N. Rosecrance, The Rise of the Trading State: Commerce and Conquest in the Modern World (New York: Basic Books, 1986); Erik Gartzke and Yonatan Lupu, "Trading on Preconceptions: Why World War I Was Not a Failure of Economic Interdependence," International Security 4, no. 36 (Spring 2012). 30. David Sobek, The Causes of War (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2009). 31. John Mueller, Retreat From Doomsday: The Obsolescence of Major War (New York: Basic Books, 1989), p. 4. 32. Mark Harrison and Nikolaus Wolf, "The Frequency of Wars," Warwick Economic Research Paper no. 879, University of Warwick, December 2008, http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/publications/twerp_879b.pdf. 33. Jean de Bloch, The Future of War: In its Technical, Economic, and Political Relations (New York: Garland, 1972 [original published in 1899]); Norman Angell, The Great Illusion (New York: Cosimo, 2010 [original published in 1909]). 34. Human Security Report 2005. 35. Holsti, p. 136. 36. Freedom House, "Freedom in the World 2012," http://www.freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/inline_images/FIW%202012%20Booklet-Final.pdf. 37. J. Joseph Hewitt et al., Peace and Conflict 2012 (CIDCM, University of Maryland, 2012), executive summary, p. 18. 38. Hein Goemans and Nikolay Marinov, "What happened to the Coup d'État? International Responses to the Seizure of Executive Power," paper presented at the International Studies Association Convention, San Francisco, March 26–31, 2008. 39. Pinker, p. 283. 40. Håvard Hegre et al., "Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992," American Political Science Review 95, no. 1 (March 2001), http://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/PS439G/readings/hegre_et_al_2001.pdf. 41. Paul Collier, Wars, Guns and Votes: Democracy in Dangerous Places (New York: HarperCollins, 2009). 42. Pinker, pp. 338–340. 43. Human Security Report 2005, p. 152. 44. Monty G. Marshall et al., Peace and Conflict 2005 (CIDCM, University of Maryland, 2005). 45. Joshua S. Goldstein, War and Gender: How Gender Shapes the War System and Vice Versa (Cambridge University Press, 2001); Mary Caprioli, "Primed for Violence: The Role of Gender Inequality in Predicting Internal Conflict," International Studies Quarterly 49, no. 2 (June 2005). 46. Henrik Urdal, "A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence," UN Expert Group Meeting on Adolescents, Youth and Development, July 21–22, 2011, http://www.un.org/esa/population/meetings/egm-adolescents/p10_urdal.pdf. 47. Neil Howe and Richard Jackson, The Graying of the Great Powers: Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century, (Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2008). 48. Urdal, "A Clash of Generations?" 49. Håvard Hegre et al., "Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010–2050," International Studies Quarterly [forthcoming in 2012]. 50. Urdal, "A Clash of Generations?" 51. Mark L. Haas, "A Geriatric Peace? The Future of U.S. Power in a World of Aging Populations," International Security 32, no. 1 (Summer 2007), http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/is3201_pp112–147.pdf. 52. Richard P. Cincotta, "How Democracies Grow Up," Foreign Policy, February 19, 2008, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2008/02/19/how_democracies_grow_up. 53. Michael Mandelbaum, The Ideas that Conquered the World: Peace, Democracy, and Free Markets in the Twenty-first Century (Cambridge: Public Affairs, 2002). 54. Norbert Elias, The Civilizing Process, vol. I and II (Oxford: Blackwell, 1969 and 1982). 55. Pinker, p. 257. 56. Pinker, chapter 9. 57. Martin van Creveld, "The New Middle Ages," Foreign Policy, no. 119 (Summer 2000); John Rapley, "The New Middle Ages," Foreign Affairs 85, no. 3 (May/June 2006); Parag Khanna, "These are the new middle ages, not a new order," The Guardian, September 12, 2008, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/12/1; Ibid., "Future shock? Welcome to the new Middle Ages," Financial Times, December 28, 2010, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/02a84976-12ba-11e0-b4c8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1oecGS9VY. 58. Roberto Vacca, The Coming Dark Age (New York: Doubleday, 1973); Robert Heilbroner, An Inquiry Into the Human Prospect (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1974); and Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1977). 59. Timothy Samuel Shah and Monica Duffy Toft, "Why God Is Winning," Foreign Policy, June 9, 2006, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2006/06/09/why_god_is_winning. 60. Yahya Sadowski, The Myth of Global Chaos (Washington: The Brookings Institution Press, 1998), p. 201. 61. Kalevi J. Holsti, Peace and War: Armed Conflicts and Inter-national Order 1648–1989 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991); SIPRI Yearbook 2010. 62. See for instance Daniel Yergin, The Quest. Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World (New York: Penguin Press, 2011). 63. David G. Victor, "What Resource Wars?" The National Interest, November 12, 2007, http://nationalinterest.org/article/what-resource-wars-1851. 64. Philippe Le Billon, Fuelling War: Natural Resources and Armed Conflict (Abingdon: Routledge, 2005). 65. John Mueller, The Remnants of War (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2004), p. 1. 66. Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, "Greed and Grievance in Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers 56 (2004), http://econweb.umd.edu/~wallis/412/collier&hoeffler_CivilWars_OEP_2004.pdf. 67. Richard P. Cincotta et al., The Security Demographic: Population and Civil Conflict after the Cold War, (Population Action International, 2003). 68. Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (New York: Penguin Books, 2005). 69. UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, "World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision," http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/. 70. Marijke Verpoorten, "Leave None to Claim the Land: A Malthusian Catastrophe in Rwanda?" Institute of Development Policy and Management, July 2011, http://ideas.repec.org/p/iob/wpaper/2011007.html. 71. Bruno Tertrais, "The Climate Wars Myth," The Washington Quarterly 34, no. 3 (Summer 2011), http://twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Tertrais.pdf. 72. Donald Kagan, On the Origins of War and the Preservation of Peace (New York: Doubleday, 1994), p. 1. 73. Andrew Carnegie, "The Palace of Peace," address delivered at The Hague, August 19, 1913, http://www.accesspadr.org/cdm4/document.php?CISOROOT=/acamu-acarc&CISOPTR=1376&REC=6. 74. Stephen M. Younger, Endangered Species: How We Can Avoid Mass Destruction and Build a Lasting Peace (New York: Harper Perennial, 2007), pp. 214–215. 75. See Malcolm Potts and Thomas Hayden, Sex and War. How Biology Explains Warfare and Terrorism and Offers a Path to a Safer World (Dallas: Benbella, 2008); and John Horgan, The End of War (San Francisco: McSweeney's, 2011). 76. Barack H. Obama, "Nobel Lecture: A Just and Lasting Peace," Oslo, December 10, 2009, http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/2009/obama-lecture_en.html. Additional informationNotes on contributorsBruno Tertrais Dr. Bruno Tertrais is a Senior Research Fellow at the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (Foundation for Strategic Research), and a TWQ editorial board member