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Translated from the original French by S. M. Stigler, University of Chicago. Originally published as Memoire sur la probabilite des causes par les evenemens, par M. de la Place, Professeur a l'Ecole royal Militaire, in Memoires de Mathematique et de Physique, Presentes a l'Academie Royale des Sciences, par divers Savans & lus dans ses Assembles, Tome Sixieme (1774) 621-656. Reprinted in Laplace's Oeuvres compl&tes 8 27-65.
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Pierre Simon Laplace (1986) studied this question.
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