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Develop and evaluate an operational probabilistic superensemble system integrating Earth observations and climate forecasts to predict seasonal dengue outbreaks up to 6 months in advance.

March 4, 2021PLoS MedicineOpen Access

Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles

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Develop and evaluate an operational probabilistic superensemble system integrating Earth observations and climate forecasts to predict seasonal dengue outbreaks up to 6 months in advance.
Fitted Bayesian spatiotemporal models to 19 years (2002–2020) of province-level dengue incidence data across Vietnam combined with Earth observation data and seasonal climate forecasts.
Assembled individual models into a superensemble to generate probabilistic dengue forecasts across multiple lead times aligned with disease control planning deadlines.
Evaluated historical model performance and executed a prospective forecast for dengue incidence across Vietnam for May through October 2020.
At lead times of 1 to 3 months, the superensemble demonstrated superior predictive accuracy (continuous rank probability score [CRPS] = 66.8, 95% CI 60.6–148.0) compared to a constant-rate baseline model (CRPS = 79.4, 95% CI 78.5–80.5).
The superensemble achieved an outbreak detection capability of 69.0% compared to 54.5% for the baseline model, with the highest prediction accuracy observed in southern Vietnam.
In prospective evaluation for May to October 2020, the superensemble yielded higher accuracy (CRPS = 110, 95% CI 102–575) than the baseline model (CRPS = 125, 95% CI 120–168), accompanied by wider uncertainty intervals.

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Implication

Modelling study reveals improved seasonal dengue outbreak prediction across Vietnam, indicating that climate-driven superensembles provide actionable early warnings for disease control.

Cite This Study

Colón‐González et al. (2021) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a197b89fa25ab5db6d98fa2 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003542

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Implication

Modelling study reveals improved seasonal dengue outbreak prediction across Vietnam, indicating that climate-driven superensembles provide actionable early warnings for disease control.

Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles

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Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

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