Economic Analysis of Canary-Based Prognostics and Health Management

Prognostics and health management (PHM) is a discipline of techniques utilizing in situ monitoring and analysis to assess and trend system degradation and to determine remaining useful life with a defined level of confidence for a specified coverage of anticipated events. One of the techniques for PHM is the use of a canary: an early-warning device derived from the use of a canary bird to detect the presence of poisonous gases in a mineshaft. This paper proposes a cost-based decision model to evaluate the economic benefit of the use of canary devices and the optimal replacement time of a canary-equipped system if the canary issues a warning. This paper also discusses the influence of scheduled preventive maintenance on the replacement policy of a canary-equipped system. The model is demonstrated with an example from the aviation industry.