A New Toolkit for Developing Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Policy Analysis

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Additional informationNotes on contributorsKristie L. EbiKristie L. Ebi is an independent consultant, Consulting Professor at Stanford University, and Guest Professor at Umea University, Sweden. She co-chairs the International Committee On New Integrated Climate change assessment Scenarios (ICONICS) facilitating development of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Her research focuses on understanding sources of current and future vulnerability and designing adaptation policies and measures to reduce the risks of climate change in the context of multi-stressor environments.Tom KramTom Kram is program manager for integrated assessment modeling at PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, and co-chairs the International Committee On New Integrated Climate change assessment Scenarios (ICONICS) facilitating development of the SSPs. He was and is involved in the development of scenarios for global environmental assessments, including the previous set of IPCC scenarios published in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and scenarios for the OECD Environmental Outlooks.Detlef P. van VuurenDetlef P. van Vuuren is a senior researcher at PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and a professor of integrated assessment of global environmental change at Utrecht University. Detlef P. van Vuuren has been involved in the development of scenarios in several environmental assessments, including the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).Brian C. O'NeillBrian C. O'Neill leads the Integrated Assessment Modeling group within the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. His research interests are in the field of integrated assessment modeling of climate change, focusing on the relationship between socioeconomic development pathways, emissions, and climate change impacts, and scenario analyses linking long-term climate change goals to shorter-term actions.Elmar KrieglerElmar Kriegler is vice chair of the research domain Sustainable Solutions at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. His research focuses on the integrated assessment of climate change, in particular on mitigation pathways in the context of climate change.Notes1. http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/y/yogiberra102747.html (accessed 23 January 2014).2. N. Nakicenovic, J. Alcamo, B. de Vries, et al., Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2000).3. Ibid.4. K. L. Ebi, S. Hallegatte, T. Kram, N. W. Arnell, T. R. Carter, J. Edmonds, et al., "A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research: Background, Process, and Future Directions," Climatic Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0912-3.5. Ibid.6. International Committee On New Integrated Climate change assessment Scenarios; www2.cgd.ucar.edu/research/iconics (accessed 23 January 2014).7. G. A. Meehl and K. Hibbard, Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI). Summary Report: A strategy for climate change stabilization experiments with AOGCMs and ESMs. Aspen Global Change Institute 2006 Session: Earth System Models: The Next Generation. Report from Aspen Global Change Institute session, July 30–August 5, 2006 and joint WGCM/AIMES Steering Committee Meeting 27 September, 2006 (Aspen, Colorado, July 30–August 5, 2006), 2007. www.agci.org/dB/PDFs/Publications/06S1_WhitePaper.pdf (accessed 23 January 2014).8. R. H. Moss, M. Babiker, S. Brinkman, E. Calvo, T. Carter, J. Edmonds, et al., Towards New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies (Geneva, Switzerland: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2008).9. Ibid.10. R. H. Moss, J. A. Edmonds, K. A. Hibbard, M. R. Manning, S. K. Rose, D. P. van Vuuren, et al., "The Next Generation of Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Assessment," Nature 463 (2010): 747–756.11. K. A. Hibbard, G. A. Meehl, P. M. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein, "A Strategy for Climate Change Stabilization Experiments," EOS Trans 88 (2007): 217.12. D. P. van Vuuren, J. A. Edmonds, M. Kainuma, K. Riahi, and J. Weyant, "A Special Issue on the RCPs," Climatic Change 109 (2011): 1–4. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0157-y.13. K. E. Taylor, R. J. Stouffer, and G. A Meehl, "An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2011). doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.14. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers." www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5-SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf (accessed 23 January 2014).15. B. C. O'Neill, E. Kriegler, K. Riahl, K.L. Ebi, S. Hallegatte, T. R. Carter, et al., "A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research: The Concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways," Climatic Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2.16. D. P. van Vuuren, E. Kriegler, B. C. O'Neill, K. L. Ebi, K. Riahi, R., T. R. Carter, et al., "A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario Matrix Architecture," Climatic Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1.17. National Research Council, Panel on Socioeconomic Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Assessment, Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop (Washington, DC: National Research Council, 2010).18. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, V. Barros, C.B. Field, T. Zwickel, et al., eds. Workshop Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Workshop on Socioeconomic Scenarios (Potsdam, Germany: IPCC Working Group III Technical Support Unit, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 2012), 51.19. B. C. O'Neill, T. R. Carter, K. L. Ebi, J. A. Edmonds, S. Hallegatte, E. Kemp-Benedict, et al., Meeting Report of the Workshop on the Nature and Use of New Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Research, Boulder, CO, November 2–4, 2011, www.isp.ucar.edu/socio-economic-pathways (accessed 2012).20. van Vuuren et al., see note 16, above.21. E. Kriegler, B. C. O'Neill, S. Hallegatte, T. Kram, R. Lempert, R. Moss, and T. Wilbanks, "The Need for and Use of Socioeconomic Scenarios for Climate Change Analysis: A New Approach Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Global Environmental Change 22 (2012): 807–22.22. D. P. van Vuuren, K. Riahi, R. Moss, J.A. Edmonds, A. Thomson, N. Nakicenovic, et al., "A Proposal for a New Scenario Framework to Support Research and Assessment in Different Climate Research Communities," Global Environmental Change 22 (2012): 21–35.23. H. Carlsen, K. H. Dreborg, and P. Wikman-Svahn, "Tailor-Made Scenario Planning for Local Adaptation to Climate Change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change (2012). doi:10.1007/s11027-012-9419-x.24. van Vuuren et al., see note 16, above.25. O'Neill et al., see note 15, above.26. O'Neill et al., see note 15, above.27. O'Neill et al., see note 15, above.28. R. J. T Klein, S. Huq, F. Denton, T. E. Downing, R. G. Richels, J. B. Robinson, and F. L. Toth, "Inter-Relationships Between Adaptation and Mitigation," in M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden, and C. E. Hanson, eds., Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007), 745–77.29. H. Winkler, K. Baumert, O. Blanchard, S. Burch, and J. Robinson, "What Factors Influence Mitigative Capacity?," Energy Policy 35 (2007): 692–703.30. O'Neill et al., see note 15, above.31. Nakicenovic et al., see note 2, above.32. E. Bennett, S. Carpenter, S. Cork, G. Peterson, G. Petschel-Held, T. Ribeiro, and M. Zurek, "Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: Rationale and Overview," in S. R. Carpenter, P. L. Pingali, E. M. Bennett, and M. B. Zurek, eds., Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Scenarios, Volume 2 (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2005), 119–43.33. O'Neill et al., see note 15, above.34. O'Neill et al., see note 15, above.35. O'Neill et al., see note 19, above.36. Full versions of the SSP narratives are submitted.37. E. Kriegler, J. A. Edmonds, S. Hallegatte, K. L. Ebi, T. Kram, K. Riahi, H. Winkler, and D. P. van Vuuren, "A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research: The Concept of Shared Policy Assumptions," Climatic Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0971-5.38. van Vuuren et al., see note 16, above.39. O'Neill et al., see note 15, above.40. K.L. Ebi and G. Yohe, "Adaptation in First and Second Best Worlds," Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2013.06.004 (accessed 23 January 2014).