Spatial aspects of labor force formation: the interrelation of cohort turnover and net migration in Serbia

Labor force contingent is a very complex and dynamic phenomenon, sensitive to demographic and socio-economic changes. In many countries, the labor force is shrinking and it has undergone a major transformation, which is expected to continue in the future. Serbia is affected by the same problem. This paper focuses on the demographic aspects of labor force formation in Serbia. The aim is to estimate the components – working age population, cohort turnover, net migration and their interrelation - in order to identify and quantify fluctuations in the labor force. Seeking to identify regional disparities and areas with a “weak” or “strong” labor force potential, this study highlights the importance of the spatial dimension. It was conducted at the municipality level and a typology of five different types of municipality is established. A decline in the labor force is observed in most municipalities in Serbia. The municipalities with a significant economic downturn in the past decades experienced intensive emigration, which is reflected in the weakening of the labor force. At the same time, other municipalities failed to achieve labor force increase despite a good demographic potential, due to intensive emigration of young people. Positive changes were identified only in eight municipalities in Serbia, due to a favorable fertility rate, age structure and, to a lesser extent, immigration.