Resilience dynamics of ecological networks in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area: strategy-dependent evolutionary responses to urbanization disturbances (1985–2023)

This study focuses on the evolutionary characteristics and patterns of ecological spaces in rapidly urbanizing regions, using the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area as a representative case. Employing cross-sectional data spanning 1985–2023, we systematically analyzed the hierarchical structure of ecological networks and the evolution of robustness. Key findings reveal: (1) a relatively stable proportion of ecological space (∼60%), with a slight increase in core ecological zones (+1.27% from 1985 to 2023), contrasting with a decline in the ecosystem service value of peripheral patches; (2) fluctuating increases in ecological network robustness; (3) under random attack strategies (undifferentiated node loss), resilience exhibited an evolutionary trajectory of initial fluctuation followed by stabilization; (4) under targeted attack strategies (centralized node encroachment), resilience showed a reverse pattern of initial stability followed by fluctuation. These patterns demonstrate the ‘expansion-adjustment-stabilization’ response mechanism of ecological spaces in rapidly urbanizing regions and reveal the ‘strategy dependence’ of ecological network resistance to disturbance.