Changes in Wheat Production Worldwide, in the European Union and in Poland

The wheat market is one of the most important agricultural markets and plays a key role in global food security. The aim of the paper is to present changes in the wheat market worldwide, in the European Union (EU) and in Poland. To assess the wheat market, changes in crop area, yields and production were analyzed using FAOSTAT data for the period 1961-2025 (64 years of observations). The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model were applied. The results show that wheat production worldwide increased from 627 million tonnes in 2005 to 799 million tonnes in 2025 (27%). In the period 2005-2025, wheat production in the EU increased from 121.1 million tonnes to 134.6 million tonnes (11%). In Poland, wheat production in 2005-2025 increased from 8.77 million tonnes to 12.85 million tonnes (46%). Using statistical tools and forecasting methods, it was shown that global wheat production will increase by 6.9% in 2026-2035. In 2035, wheat production worldwide is projected to reach 865.92 million tonnes, up from 809.99 million tonnes in 2026.