Coal–Rock Catastrophic Collapse: Precursors Based on AE and Fiber Bundle Models

This paper proposes a new precursor for monitoring coal–rock dynamic disasters based on a fiber bundle model (FBM), which has been validated in the study of material fracture and critical phenomena. First, the FBM was simulated using the Monte Carlo method to analyze the variations of force and energy. The derivative of energy was identified as a precursor characteristic for model failure. The acoustic emission (AE) features of coal–rock under uniaxial compression were also analyzed, and a constitutive model for coal–rock damage evolution under uniaxial compression was established using AE ringing count. Furthermore, the energy derivative was calculated using the constitutive model to verify the simulation results and propose a new precursor indicator for coal–rock collapse. The research results provide useful guidance for preventing coal mine dynamic disasters.