Level of function predicts first stroke in the elderly.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Our aim in this study was to assess physical function as a predictor of stroke incidence in a probability sample of noninstitutionalized elderly subjects with no previous history of stroke. SUMMARY OF REPORT: The data were obtained from a prospective longitudinal study of 2,812 individuals aged 65 years of age and older living in New Haven, Connecticut. Incidence of stroke was monitored from the baseline interview in 1982 until December 1988 (n = 167). Physical function was measured by the Katz scale of activities of daily living and a three-item scale measuring gross mobility function (Rosow scale). Both measures of impairment of function were independently associated with stroke incidence controlling for age, sex, diabetes, hypertension, and angina (p less than 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that in elderly persons, physical disability is a newly identified risk factor for stroke.