Spatio-Temporal Patterns and Influencing Factors of Small-Town Shrinkage in Contiguous Mountainous Areas from a Multidimensional Perspective—A Case Study of 461 Small Towns in the 26 Mountainous Counties of Zhejiang Province

Under the dual driving forces of negative population growth and the cross-regional agglomeration of factors, the trend of urban shrinkage in China continues to intensify. This study examines 461 small towns in 26 mountainous counties of Zhejiang Province, constructing a multi-dimensional shrinkage identification model based on “population–economy–land use.” The spatiotemporal patterns of shrinkage were visualized using ArcGIS 10.8, while the driving factors were analyzed using the MGWR method. ① From 2010 to 2020, the shrinkage phenomenon in small towns across the 26 mountainous counties rapidly spread, with medium- and severe-shrinking towns increasing markedly, showing an irreversible trend. ② The spatial evolution pattern shows a phased characteristic, transitioning from “disordered scattered points” to “striped aggregation.” A “V”-shaped shrinkage belt formed along the “Kaihua–Jingning–Yongjia” axis, demonstrating strong spatial aggregation. ③ The shrinkage of small towns is driven by multiple factors. Rugged mountainous terrain constrains development, while urbanization and industrial restructuring, coupled with outmigration of young and middle-aged workers, accelerate aging and limit local specialty industries. Transportation, social services, and policy frameworks further influence shrinkage patterns. In response to the continuous shrinkage trend of small towns in mountainous areas, future efforts should adopt coordinated strategies such as smart shrinkage, industrial restructuring, and institutional innovation to achieve structural and systemic reshaping.