Rigorous performance evaluation in protein structure modelling and implications for computational biology

In principle, given the amino acid sequence of a protein, it is possible to compute the corresponding three-dimensional structure. Methods for modelling structure based on this premise have been under development for more than 40 years. For the past decade, a series of community wide experiments (termed Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP)) have assessed the state of the art, providing a detailed picture of what has been achieved in the field, where we are making progress, and what major problems remain. The rigorous evaluation procedures of CASP have been accompanied by substantial progress. Lessons from this area of computational biology suggest a set of principles for increasing rigor in the field as a whole.