Institutional Development of Parties and the Thesis of Party Decline

The theories by which social scientists attempt to explain complex social trends are necessarily partial and grounded upon limited expertise and particular experiences. In a disconcerting way, such theories tend to be outstripped by the pace of the change that they are designed to explain, and observation and data collecting continue to be guided by the partially outmoded theories. The recognition by scholars that events are occurring in combinations that do not conform to theory can be a wrenching experience. Economists and government decision makers are perplexed by the anomaly of recession and rising unemployment accompanied by rising interest rates and increasing inflation. This conjunction does not conform to the expectations derived from accepted economic theory. Political scientists, pushing the concept of electoral realignment to the limits of its logic and working from the methodological strength of survey and attitudinal research, have formulated and tested a theory of politics that leads them to conclude that American political parties are in steady decline and may verge upon extinction. The electorate's declining commitment to party, the apparent lessened interest of activists in party organization, and the salience of personality and issue over party loyalty are indicators of party decline. This conclusion may have merit when considered in terms of the capacity of party organizations to broker presidential nominations or manage presidential campaigns. This article presents evidence supporting a contrary thesis; that is, while national parties are less involved than in the past in controlling presidential nominations,