Triglyceride–to–High-Density-Lipoprotein-Cholesterol Ratio is an Index of Heart Disease Mortality and of Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Men

BACKGROUND: High triglyceride (TG) and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) impart risk for heart disease. This study examines the relationships of TG/HDL-C ratio to mortality from all causes, coronary heart disease (CHD), or cardiovascular disease (CVD). SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Survival analysis was done in 39,447 men grouped by TG/HDL-C ratio cut point of 3.5 and for metabolic syndrome. National Death Index International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9 and ICD-10) codes were used for CVD and CHD deaths occurring from 1970 to 2008. Incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) according to ratio was estimated in 22,215 men. Triglyceride/HDL-C ratio and cross-product of TG and fasting blood glucose (TyG index) were used in analysis. RESULTS: Men were followed up for 581,194 person-years. Triglyceride/HDL-C ratio predicted CHD, CVD, and all-cause mortality after adjustment for established risk factors and non-HDL-C. Mortality rates were higher in individuals with a high ratio than in those with a low ratio. Fifty-five percent of men had metabolic syndrome that was also predictive of CHD, CVD, and all-cause mortality. Annual incidence of DM was 2 times higher in men with high TG/HDL-C ratio than in those with a low ratio. Individuals with high TG/HDL-C ratio had a higher incidence of DM than those with a low ratio. The TyG index was not equally predictive of causes of mortality to TG/HDL-C, but both were equally predictive of diabetes incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Triglyceride/HDL-C ratio predicts CHD and CVD mortality as well as or better than do metabolic syndrome in men. Also, a high ratio predisposes to DM. The TyG index does not predict CHD, CVD, or all-cause mortality equally well, but like TG/HDL-C ratio, it predicts DM incidence.