Informing Large-Scale Emergent Decarceration Efforts: Validation of the Reduction in Capacity Evaluation (ReduCE)

Large-scale emergent decarceration efforts introduce challenges for time and resources that prohibit jurisdictions from employing best practices in release decisions. Best practice includes a structured professional judgment approach by paroling authorities to incorporate group-level predicted risk and individual-level assessment of current risk and suitability for release. Absent the ability to expand parole review, jurisdictions should ensure decisions are informed by risk assessment that incorporates recent behavior and potential mitigating factors to approximate parole practice. The Reduction in Capacity Evaluation (ReduCE) was created for the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation following COVID-19 to inform prison population reduction efforts wherein empirically supported structured decision-making used by the Board of Parole Hearings cannot be employed. ReduCE is automatically scored, differentiates between lower risk groups, predicts any new return ( AUC = .69) and new felony return ( AUC = .75) across gender and race, and informs risk over and above the existing static instrument.