Development and validation of the CARE-DM model to predict the cardiovascular risk in older persons with type 2 diabetes

Figures

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  Figure 1. Observed vs. predicted cardiovascular disease risks by risk group. Risk groups were defined according to predicted 5-year risks based on the risk groups defined as in the European Society of Cardiology guidelines for patients with diabetes (10-year risks were divided in half to approximate 5-year risks).4 There were no participants in the low-risk group, as no participants had a 5-year cardiovascular disease risk of <2.5% in our data set. Observed and estimated risks were derived from the first imputation data set.

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  Figure 2. Calibration plot (apparent performance). The calibration plot displays the estimated risk of cardiovascular disease vs. the observed proportion with a cardiovascular disease event at 5 years. The bold line shows a smoothed calibration curve, derived based on pseudo-values which account for the competing risks of non-cardiovascular death.30 The dots display deciles of the predicted risks vs. observed probabilities. Horizontal error bars indicate the standard deviation of predicted risks in each decile. Vertical error bars indicate the standard error of the observed probabilities.