The Predictability Challenge of Autonomous Systems: Toward Governability Infrastructure for Large-Scale Autonomous Ecosystems

The rapid advancement of autonomous systems has largely been interpreted through the lens of capability. This paper challenges the assumption that increasing capability alone is sufficient for large-scale societal adoption. The paper introduces the concepts of the Predictability Deficit, Governability Constraint and Governability Infrastructure, arguing that future autonomous ecosystems may increasingly require mechanisms capable of preserving predictability despite growing autonomy. Drawing on historical transitions in aviation, electrical infrastructure, communication networks and financial systems, the paper develops a Predictability Infrastructure Theory linking autonomous capability, trust, deployment and societal dependence. The paper proposes that societies do not become dependent on technologies merely because they are capable. They become dependent on technologies once those capabilities become sufficiently predictable to support trust, coordination and long-term reliance.