Estimation of a Dynamic Car Ownership Model

This paper presents a new approach to the estimation of dynamic transport demand models by using information from independent samples of cross-sections of the population collected over time. A “pseudo-panel” approach is used to estimate a dynamic model of car ownership, based on data from annual Family Expenditure Surveys in the UK. The determinants of car ownership investigated include income, the costs of car ownership and use, public transport fares, and the socio-demographic characteristics of the households. The results obtained suggest that the applied methodology can provide a very fruitful basis for exploring the dynamics of household transport behaviour.