Mapping sinkhole susceptibility in Mexico City using the weight of evidence method

Sinkholes pose a significant threat to urban cities, with the risk particularly pronounced in Mexico City. The metropolis faces a critical situation, as over 500 sinkholes were registered from 2017 to 2020, posing significant risks to infrastructure and public safety. This study aims to assess sinkhole susceptibility in the urban area of Mexico City using the Weights of Evidence method. We used a GIS database comprising 18 conditioning factors and sinkhole damage records. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Area Under the Curve (AUC) analyses evaluated the resulting map's validity. The map effectively identifies high-risk areas, covering 0.14% of the total area, particularly in the central-northern and eastern parts of the city, with a precision of 0.91. The study underscores the pivotal role of conditioning factors, with anthropogenic influences emerging as primary contributors to sinkhole formation. The results highlight the potential of this methodology for informed urban planning and effective risk mitigation in identified areas. • Over 500 sinkholes were recorded in Mexico City from 2017 to 2020. • The study uses Weights of Evidence method, with 18 conditioning factors, including groundwater depletion and subsidence velocity. • The susceptibility map, validated using ROC and AUC, achieves 0.91 precision, identifying high-risk areas (0.14% of the total). • Sinkholes are predominantly concentrated in subsidence-prone areas but occur more frequently in regions with slower subsidence rates. • Groundwater drawdown correlates with sinkhole susceptibility, but weakens in the critical area, suggesting compaction.