An Interpretation of Fertility and Population Policy in Kenya

After almost two decades of government-sponsored efforts to reduce population growth, Kenya's fertility level and rate of natural increase are both at peaks rarely attained in the recorded experience of national populations. Total fertility is close to eight births per woman; natural increase is about 4 percent per year. While the achievement of a sufficient pace of economic growth to permit improvement in per capita income despite this demographic expansion is noteworthy-many countries in the region did less well-the outcome from the standpoint of population policy has been a highly conspicuous failure. This article addresses three questions: Why is Kenya's fertility so high? What went wrong in the design or execution of the government's past efforts to lower fertility levels that rendered their effect thus far negligible? And what policy directions, starting from the present population and development situation, might be more effective? While these questions are simple, their answers are not. A response to the first question entails an appreciation of the economics of children and childraising in the Kenyan setting, of the social arrangements within which fertility-related decisions are made, and of the cultural configurations that can sustain patterns of fertility behavior in the face of what might appear strong objective reasons for change. The second question is not answered by a straightforward account of policy development and of difficulties encountered in implementation, although that is a necessary input. Rather, it calls also for assessment of the roads not taken, and judgment as to what opportunities there in fact were to modify fertility under realistic assumptions of administrative capacity and political feasibility. If indeed Kenyan realities would have defeated any plausible efforts to slow population growth over the last 20 years, no specific blame should accrue to the policies and programs actually adopted. And conversely.