An Endogenous Security-Oriented Framework for Cyber Resilience Assessment in Critical Infrastructures

In the face of escalating cyber threats to critical infrastructures, achieving robust cyber resilience has become paramount. This paper proposes an endogenous security-oriented framework for cyber resilience assessment, specifically tailored for critical infrastructures. Drawing on the principles of endogenous security, our framework integrates dynamic heterogeneous redundancy (DHR) and adaptive defense mechanisms to address both known and unknown threats. We model resilience across four key dimensions—Prevention, Destruction Resistance, Adaptive Recovery, and Evolutionary Learning—using a novel mathematical formulation that captures nonlinear interactions and temporal dynamics. The framework incorporates environmental threat entropy to dynamically adjust resilience scores, ensuring relevance in evolving attack landscapes. Through empirical validation on simulated critical infrastructure scenarios, we demonstrate the framework’s ability to quantify resilience trajectories and trigger timely defensive adaptations. Empiricalvalidation on a real-world critical infrastructure system yielded an overall resilience score of 82.75, revealing a critical imbalance between strong preventive capabilities (90/100) and weak Adaptive Recovery (66/100). Our approach offers a significant advancement over static risk assessment models by providing actionable metrics for strategic resilience investments. This work contributes to the field by bridging endogenous security theory with practical resilience engineering, paving the way for more robust protection of critical systems against sophisticated cyber threats.