Unrealized Partisanship: A Theory of Dealignment

This paper develops a theory of partisan dealignment from which it examines the contemporary dealignment of the American electorate. The theory specifies three factors: the vividness of the existing alignment, the stability of the issue agenda, and the ambiguity of party issue positions, which condition the extent to which new voters are socialized into the existing party alignment. When these conditions are favorable, as they were in American politics from the New Deal until the early 1960s, most voters adopt their parents' partisanship. However, as the conditions become less favorable--as they clearly did beginning in the mid-1960s--increasing numbers of voters fail to "realize" their expected partisanship and become Independents instead. The strain toward unrealization is most intense for those who are most vulnerable, voters with issue attitudes that are sharply at odds with their inherited partisanship. Thus, Unrealized Democrats are consistently more conservative than Democrats while Unrealized Republicans are more liberal than Republicans. This study thus demonstrates that dealignment may be understood as an issue-driven phenomenon.