Secondary Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Control:  Health Impacts in China

In addition to long-term benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions in the form of avoided health and ecosystem damage, there are important near-term benefits resulting from the reduction in health-damaging pollutants (HDP) that can accompany GHG reductions. This paper estimates such health benefits, using the power and household energy sectors of China as a case study for the method. Four policy scenarios were compared: business as usual, least-cost energy efficiency, least-cost per unit global-warming-reduction fuel substitution, and least-cost per unit exposure-reduction fuel substitution. The health benefits were estimated by converting PM10 emissions first to human exposures and then to avoided mortality and morbidity with existing exposure-response relationships. Our results demonstrate that the near-term health benefits from GHG reductions in China could be substantial but are highly dependent on the technologies and sectors chosen. Such near-term benefits provide the opportunity for a true “no-regrets” GHG reduction policy. The results of this study also have important implications for the current international negotiations to cut GHG emissions by demonstrating that GHG reduction strategies can have substantial local and national as well as global benefits.