Differences between Return and Nonreturn Migration: An Econometric Analysis

The regression equations presented in this report furnish strong and consistent indications that potential return and nonreturn migrants respond quite differently to the factors that condition migration decisions. The importance of treating return and nonreturn migration separately, and recognizing their differences in theories of human migration is underscored. Despite admittedly crude data and some necessary approximations, these differences show through with notable consistency, suggesting that the true underlying relationships may be quite strong. This exercise should be repeated using data that permit a more exact delineation of return migration--for example, residence histories supplemented with information on contemporaneous economic conditions during the reference period. A second notable finding--that return migration probabilities are positively (and significantly) related to distance warrants further investigation with independent data. Finally, this investigation should be extended to other age-sex groups.