Global land use and land cover projections under the shared socio-economic pathways: An integrated computable general equilibrium analysis with sub-national resolution for Europe

Anticipating uncertain land use and land cover trajectories, central to global sustainability and climate action, requires scenario-based projections grounded in socio-economic narratives. This study presents a new modelling framework for generating globally consistent land use and land cover projections, applied to the five Shared Socio-Economic Pathways through 2050. Compared to existing work, this approach offers four key advancements: (1) avoiding multi-model coupling and increasing transparency through the use of an open-source, stand-alone economic model with integrated assessment features; (2) integrating key structural change drivers in a recursive-dynamic set-up; (3) achieving high regional resolution, including NUTS2 level disaggregation for European economic dynamics; and (4) representing land-using production activities and products with high resolution. The new projections are generated using CGEBox, an open-source Computable General Equilibrium modelling platform tailored for long-term baseline development, with integrated accounting for land use, land cover, and energy. CGEBox produces complementary projections within the range of results from established Integrated Assessment Models, offering new insights into the complex interactions between socio-economic drivers and land system dynamics. Only the most sustainable scenario - combining strong behavioural change, ambitious policy action, and favourable technological progress - shows a marked increase in natural land cover. The remaining scenarios range from near-stable natural land cover to notable losses in cases lacking environmental protection. The new projections are particularly valuable for economically grounded policy assessments of land use and land cover change and its implications - especially where timely updates, distributional effects, or regional and land use details are essential. • New, global set of land use and land cover projections for the five SSPs through 2050. • High detail with 35 land use sectors and sub-national disaggregation for Europe. • Based on stand-alone CGE model with dedicated land use/ emission accounting features. • Complement existing IAM projections with a focus on Europe and agriculture. • Policy-relevant new insights into socio-economics and land use and land cover.