Numerical modeling study reveals how rainfall infiltration and soil layering drive slope failure, highlighting the critical role of pore pressure buildup in landslide prediction.
The analysis of rainfall-induced landslides, which involve complex interactions between hydrology, soil mechanics, and geometry, is still limited by simplifying assumptions in existing models. We introduced a numerical model that couples soil infiltration with three-dimensional (3D) slope stability analysis. After validating against benchmark problems, we used this model to investigate the effects of various hydro-geotechnical conditions on slope stability. The results show that rainfall intensity dictates the stability of shallow landslides, while for deep-seated landslides, it governs the rate of progression toward failure. A high initial groundwater table reduces slope stability by accelerating soil weakening, particularly for deep landslides. Although upward moisture redistribution via matric suction is possible, its effect is negligible during infiltration, allowing deep saturation and landslide risk to persist. Furthermore, a low-permeability basal layer impedes drainage, leading to pore pressure buildup and a rapid decline in stability. The proposed model could potentially overcome the limitations in predictive accuracy of current hydro-geotechnical models arising from their oversimplified representations.
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Chen et al. (2025) studied this question.
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