Spatio-temporal patterns of High-Quality urbanization development under water resource constraints and their key Drivers: A case study in the Yellow River Basin, China

• Evaluating the Water Resources Constraint Intensity(WRCI) from the Perspective of High-quality Development. • An Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model reformed by entropy technology and a multi objective fuzzy membership function were employed for indicator aggregation. • The spatiotemporal changes and correlation of UQDI, WRI, and WRCI in 78 prefecture level cities in the Yellow River Basin during 2011–2020 were analyzed. Promoting the high-quality development of urbanization is a crucial way to achieve sustainable development goals. Water resources are a rigid constraint for such development. However, There is still room for improvement in the research on the spatio-temporal pattern and key driving factors of high-quality urbanization development under the constraint of water resources. Aiming at the problem that the high-quality development of urbanization in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) is facing water resources constraints, this paper discussed the spatial–temporal pattern and key drivers of the high-quality development of urbanization in the YRB under water resource constraints by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process model reformed by entropy technology, multi-objective fuzzy membership function, spatial autocorrelation analysis and obstacle model. The results revealed that, first, we found the High-Quality Urbanization Development Index (UQDI) exhibited steady growth, while both the Water Resources Index (WRI) and the Water Resources Constraint Intensity (WRCI) initially increased and then decreased during the study period. Second, the UQDI displayed a dual-core pattern, with the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration and the Central Plains urban agglomeration serving as the cores. WRI exhibited relatively stable spatial distribution, with the southeast region outperforming the northwest. WRCI also demonstrated a relatively stable spatial distribution, resulting in two weak-constraint areas, represented by Shandong and Henan, and a strong-constraint area centered around Ningxia. Third, the UQDI, WRI, and WRCI exhibited spatial interdependence. The spatial interdependence of UQDI and WRI increased, while that of WRCI decreased during the study period. The three indexes also displayed a clear pattern of local clustering in space. Two low-value aggregation areas, namely Shandong and Henan, and a high-value aggregation area located in Ningxia, emerged during the study period. Last, the WRCI was primarily influenced by the fundamental conditions of water resources. The main influencing factors included per capita water resources, mean annual precipitation, total water resources, water resources modulus, and the total amount of foreign investment utilization. In light of the research findings, the paper proposes policy recommendations for promoting high-quality urbanization development in the YRB. This study provides decision-making guidance for countries and regions in arid areas to solve the water resources constraints on the high-quality development of urbanization.