Prevalence and persistence of cost-related medication non-adherence before and during the COVID-19 pandemic among medicare patients at high risk of hospitalization

OBJECTIVE: To study cost-related medication non-adherence (CRN) for a 30-month period before and during the COVID-19 pandemic using a sample of Medicare patients at high risk of hospitalization. DESIGN: A novel data set of quarterly surveys of CRN was used to evaluate CRN before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) analyses were conducted to evaluate the adjusted coefficients of change in CRN behaviors controlling for socio-demographic and health characteristics. PARTICIPANTS: Six hundred seventy-seven Medicare beneficiaries at high risk of hospitalization who were alive on January 1, 2020 and followed up through quarterly surveys on CRN for 30 months before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Two metrics of prevalence and persistence of CRN and their adjusted coefficients in GEE with binomial family distribution and log link function controlling for socio-demographic and health characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 5,990 quarterly surveys were completed by the 677 patients during the 30-month study period. Among the 677 patients, 250 (37%) were men, 591 (87%) were African American, and 288 (42%) were Medicare-Medicaid dual eligible. The unadjusted prevalence of CRN before and during the COVID-19 pandemic was 31.1% and 25.7% respectively (p = 0.02 by Chi-squared test), and persistent CRN rates were 12.1% and 9.7% respectively (p = 0.17 by Chi-squared test). The adjusted odds ratio of CRN prevalence during the pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic level was 0.75 (p<0.01), and 0.74 (p = 0.03) for persistent CRN in GEE estimations. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: There are coherent evidence of a reversal of CRN rates during the COVID-19 pandemic among this high-need, high-cost resource utilization Medicare population. Patients' CRN behaviors may be responsive to exogenous impacts, and the behaviors changed in the same direction with similar magnitude in terms of prevalence (the extensive margin) and persistence (the intensive margin). More research is needed to advance the understanding of the driving forces behind patients' behavioral changes and to identify factors that may be informative for reducing CRN in the long run.