Key result
AI-defined high-risk echo cluster is linked to ~160% higher 2-year mortality after TAVR.
Why the study?
It was hypothesized that aortic outflow velocity profiles contain more valuable information about aortic valve obstruction and left ventricular contractility than can be captured by the human eye.
Cohort (n=366)
Yes
Hazard Ratio: 2.6 (95% CI 1.4–5.1)
p-value: p=0.004
Unsupervised machine learning of Doppler tracings identifies a high-risk phenotype in severe aortic stenosis characterized by left ventricular decompensation and right heart failure, which predicts 2-year mortality after TAVR better than standard aortic valve area measurements.
High-risk Doppler cluster was associated with higher post-TAVR mortality; hypothesis-generating for ML phenotyping and requires prospective validation before clinical use.
Aims Hypothesizing that aortic outflow velocity profiles contain more valuable information about aortic valve obstruction and left ventricular contractility than can be captured by the human eye, features of the complex geometry of Doppler tracings from patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS) were extracted by a convolutional neural network (CNN). Methods and results After pre-training a CNN (VGG-16) on a large data set (ImageNet data set; 14 million images belonging to 1000 classes), the convolutional part was employed to transform Doppler tracings to 1D arrays. Among 366 eligible patients [age: 79.8 ± 6.77 years; 146 (39.9%) women] with pre-procedural echocardiography and right heart catheterization prior to transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR), good quality Doppler tracings from 101 patients were analysed. The convolutional part of the pre-trained VGG-16 model in conjunction with principal component analysis and k-means clustering distinguished two shapes of aortic outflow velocity profiles. Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed that mortality in patients from Cluster 2 (n = 40, 39.6%) was significantly increased [hazard ratio (HR) for 2-year mortality: 3; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1–8.9]. Apart from reduced cardiac output and mean aortic valve gradient, patients from Cluster 2 were also characterized by signs of pulmonary hypertension, impaired right ventricular function, and right atrial enlargement. After training an extreme gradient boosting algorithm on these 101 patients, validation on the remaining 265 patients confirmed that patients assigned to Cluster 2 show increased mortality (HR for 2-year mortality: 2.6; 95% CI: 1.4–5.1, P-value: 0.004). Conclusion Transfer learning enables sophisticated pattern recognition even in clinical data sets of limited size. Importantly, it is the left ventricular compensation capacity in the face of increased afterload, and not so much the actual obstruction of the aortic valve, that determines fate after TAVR.
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Lachmann et al. (2022) conducted a cohort in Severe aortic stenosis (n=366). Cluster 2 assignment (high-risk echocardiographic phenotype) vs. Cluster 1 assignment (low-risk echocardiographic phenotype) was evaluated on 2-year all-cause mortality (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.4-5.1, p=0.004). Assignment to a high-risk echocardiographic cluster (Cluster 2) identified by machine learning was associated with significantly increased 2-year mortality after TAVR compared to Cluster 1 (HR 2.6).
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