New predictions for vCJD numbers

Assuming BSE causes vCJD, the numbers and characteristics of the vCJD outbreak are re‐estimated using vCJD mortality data to the end of 2001. The results of the earlier analyses are confirmed. The mean mortality period is found to be less than ten years, with seven years the most likely figure; the number of human victims will be restricted to hundreds, even if the distribution turns out to be bimodal, and the most likely figure is calculated as 130. The effectiveness of the various countermeasures since 1988 is assessed in terms of lives saved, and the early countermeasures are found to be far and away the most effective. The implications for government policy are examined.