Passenger Journey Destination Estimation From Automated Fare Collection System Data Using Spatial Validation

A methodology for estimating the destination of passenger journeys from automated fare collection (AFC) system data is described. It proposes new spatial validation features to increase the accuracy of destination inference results and to verify key assumptions present in previous origin-destination estimation literature. The methodology applies to entry-only system configurations combined with distance-based fare structures, and it aims to enhance raw AFC system data with the destination of individual journeys. This paper describes an algorithm developed to implement the methodology and the results from its application to bus service data from Porto. The data relate to an AFC system integrated with an automatic vehicle location system that records a transaction for each passenger boarding a bus, containing attributes regarding the route, the vehicle, and the travel card used, along with the time and the location where the journey began. Some of these are recorded for the purpose of allowing onboard ticket inspection but additionally enable innovative spatial validation features introduced by the methodology. The results led to the conclusion that the methodology is effective for estimating journey destinations at the disaggregate level and identifies false positives reliably.