The Present as a Historic Turning Point

Eras Are we at the end of an era? If so, which one? Eras, after all, are merely the constructions of historians and pundits needing to find ways of organizing large chunks of time. Their purpose is to identify points at which there are major changes in the structures that define the historical landscape. At these turning-points there is still a lot of continuity, but there are also changes significant enough to create expectations that the players and the rules of the game in the new era will be noticeably different from those which came before. Eras help to identify which ideas die and which live on to shape the new era. It is an attractive idea to hijack. To think that our own immediate experience is located at some key historical juncture is especially tempting as we approach the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the third millennium. Staring this risk in the face, I argue that we really are at a historic turning-point, and not just one defined by the end of the Cold War. The Cold War was merely the final act of a much larger play the rise and decline of the West that is now drawing to a close. To tell this story I will work backwards, from the Cold War, through the 20th century, to the 500year period since 1500. Each successive era incorporates the one before it, and all come to an end in our present time. Together they form a single historic turning-point. Two warnings. First, this analysis concentrates on politics and economics because that is where the action has been over the last 500 years. It does not explore environmental or religious questions. Second, it does not attempt to think through the impact of new or unanticipated developments, whether malign or benign. Its purpose is to define the historic moment at which we have now arrived, and to see what goes forward from it.